Saturday, April 30, 2011

Santos, Chavez and Lobo

Last week, the scheduled meeting between Presidents Santos and Chavez had an unexpected guest: Honduran President Lobo. Colombia's president convinced Venezuela's president to agree to a roadmap to bringing Honduras back into the OAS.

Santos's move is potentially a diplomatic game changer. Up until now, the assumption was that Brazil was the key in the debate over whether Honduras was reincorporated into the OAS. Here's what I wrote last August:
Let's be honest, we all know the country that matters most is almost certainly Brazil. As long as Brazil denies recognition, it's very unlikely that the OAS will take a vote on the matter. Once Brazil switches, everything else should fall into place, even if there are a few holdouts remaining.
However, by bringing Chavez on board with a plan for reincorporation, Santos actually managed to run a circle around Brazil's diplomacy. After all, once Venezuela is on board, President Rousseff won't want to look more extreme in her position than Hugo Chavez. It's a gamble that depends on Santos's new found diplomatic relations and leverage with Chavez. However, if it works, he'll have pulled off something that appeared very unlikely just a few months ago.

Of course, whether Venezuela actually votes to reincorporate Honduras still depends on a few factors. The whims of Venezuela's president could change at any moment. Additionally, whether the Supreme Court agrees with President Lobo to drop the charges on Zelaya remains up in the air. RNS analyzes some of the specifics behind that case.

Zelaya already seems optimistic about the case and has announced he is returning in May. Also worth reading is this interview with Juan Barahona of the FNRP discussing the goals of the resistance and the potential for new negotiations with the government.

Source: http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2011/04/santos-chavez-and-lobo.html

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