POLL NUMBERS!!! 5-way race in Peru, 21 days to go

Today's Ipsos-Apoyo poll in Peru shows the race is tightening:

• Toledo 23
• Fujimori 19
• Humala 17
• Casta�eda 14
• Kuczynski 14

Toledo and Casta�eda have dropped in the past few weeks. Humala and Kuczynski have crept up into contention. Fujimori has held steady right around 20%.

The official margin of error is about 2% and Ipsos-Apoyo are good pollsters who are looking at both urban and rural populations. That said, in a campaign this fluid in which five candidates divide up the votes so evenly, this has become anyone's race. All it takes is a five point surge or drop by any candidate in the final weeks to put them in to or out of the top two spots.

This is the sort of election where the ground game matters a great deal. Which of these candidates has the organizational ability to make sure their base of voters show up to the polls on election day? A good field team that makes phone calls and goes door to door can move the election by several points in a way that can't be polled.

The second round matchups are tightening up too. Toledo-Casta�eda and Toledo-Fujimori both end up 43-38, a decline for Toledo and an improvement for Fujimori. In other hypothetical matches, Casta�eda edges out Fujimori and everyone beats Humala, though with first round numbers moving as they are, those hypothetical matchups could shift as well.

Source: http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2011/03/poll-numbers-5-way-race-in-peru-21-days.html

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