POLL NUMBERS!!! 5-way race in Peru, 19 days to go

As an addition to my last post on Peru's poll numbers, Datum released new numbers showing:

• Toledo 20
• Humala 18.5
• Fujimori 17
• Casta�eda 15
• Kuczynski 13

While the headlines are about Humala moving into 2nd place (which is important), the real news is that we have a five-way race going on here in which no candidate gets more than 20% of the vote. These numbers are even closer than the Apoyo numbers.

The results also indicate some movements in the hypothetical 2nd round matches:

-Luis Casta�eda 45.5% - Alejandro Toledo 39.9%, NS/NO 14.6%
-Alejandro Toledo 46.2% - Keiko Fujimori 36.8%, NS/NO 17%
-Alejandro Toledo 48.8% - Ollanta Humala 32.4%, NS/NO 18.8%
-Alejandro Toledo 45.5% - Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 34.9%, NS/NO 19.65
-Luis Casta�eda 50.3% - Keiko Fujimori 33.3%, NS/NO 16.4%

So, Casta�eda has dropped in the polls for the first round, but he's potentially a very strong candidate in the second round if he can get there.

Also note here that Fujimori and Humala both do poorly in hypothetical second rounds. While they both have a base of support, they also both have a significant portion of the population that hates and fears them, making it a much tougher (though not impossible) campaign to run.

Source: http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2011/03/poll-numbers-5-way-race-in-peru-19-days.html

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